The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 16 December, 2020 - 11:42

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute



The CPILW fell slightly from 0.9% in October to 0.7% in November.  The CPIH measure of inflation also decreased from 0.9% in October 2020 to 0.6% in November. Both measures indicate a fall in inflation in November.

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Amit Kara

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Iana Liadze

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Dr Ian Hurst

Posted: 14 December, 2020 - 16:47

Global warming is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme or abnormal weather events (Herring et al, 2018, NASEM, 2016). In this note, we quantify the uncertainty of GDP outcomes resulting from abnormal weather events, considering both the initial destruction that is caused by the event as well as the boost to activity from the subsequent rebuild.


We deploy our global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, which specifically allows for spillover effects from one economy to another. Our analysis shows that extreme weather events cause economic volatility and that spillovers magnify the effects of these events. We show that these spillovers are particularly important for small open economies that are densely populated.

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Sara Bonetti

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Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Posted: 12 November, 2020 - 16:30

New guidance from Public Health England provides more evidence of the interconnected nature of health, care and education, and of the fundamental role early years practitioners play in supporting young children’s speech, language and communication development.  But with the early years sector struggling to survive in the wake of the pandemic, many children may miss out on this much needed support.  Where is the support for the early years sector?

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 26 October, 2020 - 07:49

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute




The CPIH measure of inflation has increased to 0.7% in September 2020, from its August level of 0.5%. The CPILW decreased slightly to 0.9% from the August value of 1.0%.

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Louise Tracey

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Sara Bonetti

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Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Posted: 16 October, 2020 - 11:10


Starting school is a significant developmental milestone that can cause anxiety at the best of times.  So, what impact will the global pandemic have on school starters this year?

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Dr Corrado Macchiarelli

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Sathya Mellina

Posted: 12 October, 2020 - 16:16

The outcome of the Brexit referendum caught financial markets by surprise, resulting in sharp moves in market prices. But what do those moves tell us about the underlying economic impacts? 

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Megan Dixon

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Rob Newton

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Dr Silke Fricke

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Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Posted: 12 October, 2020 - 09:54

Many professionals within the early years sector are understandably angry at the government’s record around the early years given its crucial importance in children’s life.  These include issues around insufficient funding, the development of new frameworks without genuine sector consultation and the lack of focus on supporting pre-school settings.  We are concerned that this frustration has led to misunderstandings being widely shared about a programme designed to support early language skills, and this may prove harmful for supporting informed decision making.

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 16 September, 2020 - 14:18

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute



The CPIH measure of inflation has decreased to 0.5% in August 2020, from its July level of 1.1%. The CPILW fell by less, with an August value of 1.0% down from the previous month 1.2%. 

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Dr Corrado Macchiarelli

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Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 10 September, 2020 - 12:19

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have a significant impact on medium-run inflation expectations particularly if considered in conjunction with large fiscal stimuli, ultra-loose monetary policies and the risk of de-globalization. The recent review of monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve, focusing on an average inflation target strategy, highlights how difficult it can be to keep inflation expectations well-anchored when secular factors are at play (i.e.

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 19 August, 2020 - 12:09

The CPIH measure of inflation has increased to 1.1% and now the gap between the lockdown measure CPILW of 1.2% is small. The use of pre-pandemic expenditure weights is no longer leading to an under-estimate of inflation.

Inflation is set to increase as the pandemic raises costs in many parts of the economy.  This is unlikely to happen in 2020 as demand will remain low as unemployment and bankruptcies increase in the coming months. 

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Dr Andrew Sentance CBE

Posted: 10 August, 2020 - 15:38


The Coronavirus pandemic has cast a dark cloud over UK economic prospects for the 2020s. The latest NIESR forecast suggests that GDP will not return to its 2019 level until 2023 or 2024. The Bank of England is more optimistic about the potential for the UK economy to bounce back but it is still not expecting the 2019 level of GDP to be exceeded until 2022. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) central scenario is for a recovery somewhere between the NIESR and Bank projections.

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Dawn Holland

Posted: 31 July, 2020 - 09:02

The Covid-19 pandemic and extraordinary measures put in place to contain the spread of the virus have delivered a dramatic shock to the world economy. As the stringency of global lockdown measures gradually ease, an understanding of the short-term economic consequences of these measures is beginning to emerge. 

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Janine Boshoff

Posted: 24 July, 2020 - 15:56

Statistical agencies such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are responsible for collecting data on the prices of goods and services that we consumers purchase in order to calculate inflation. The ONS creates a representative ‘basket of goods’ that include the goods and services that households buy and consume most often. Historically, the prices for these goods and services would then be collected by dedicated price collectors each month, allowing the ONS to calculate the average price change between subsequent months.

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Dr David Nguyen

Posted: 22 July, 2020 - 13:38


Covid-19 and Brexit show that high speed internet is essential for growth

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 15 July, 2020 - 11:58

The CPILW for June 2020 is 1.1%, unchanged from 1.1% in May. This is 0.3% above the official CPIH of 0.8% and indicates that the official inflation measure CPIH understates inflation.

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Andrew Benito

Posted: 6 July, 2020 - 09:51

Will mass unemployment overshadow the U.K. outlook or will we be struck by the resilience in employment following a severe, yet short-lived, recession? Using the Beveridge curve to construct a baseline points to the unemployment rate rising sharply from 4% to 10% as the UK’s Covid-19 Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) unwinds in the second half of the year.

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Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 17 June, 2020 - 15:31

The CPILW for May 2020 is 1.1%, a slight fall from 1.2% in April. It is 0.4% above the official CPIH and indicates that the official inflation measure CPIH understates inflation.

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Peter Doyle

Posted: 10 June, 2020 - 08:27

Slavery was and is a pathology of economics. Our long-standing failure to reflect that has caused us to mishandle our foundational concept of “an economic agent”. Correcting that will not only secure the integrity of our discipline at its core but is also essential to for us to grasp exactly what is at stake in the earthquake now unfolding in the United States—and its global implications—after the murder of George Floyd, and to ponder what is to be done about it.

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Spiros Bougheas

Posted: 8 June, 2020 - 11:52

The government has introduced a number of new policy initiatives offering financial support to those who lost their jobs during the crisis.  However, the policies have been costly, not comprehensive, and financed in a way that is both unfair and endangering the prospects of post-crisis recovery.  An alternative plan is proposed.

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Clare Huxley

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Anneka Dawson

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Dr Chiara Manzoni

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Johnny Runge

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Lucy Stokes

Posted: 28 May, 2020 - 14:53

Expected impacts from the disruption to children’s education as a result of the Covid-19 crisis have been a recurrent theme since the start of lockdown, particularly for children from more disadvantaged backgrounds. Children in Reception and Year 1 are among the first being encouraged to return to school from 1 June. At the same time, early years and childcare settings are also being asked to welcome more children back. This focus on getting the youngest back to educational settings acknowledges the critical importance of learning in the early years for future outcomes.