The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Posted: 21 May, 2013 - 15:20


Following today's mildly encouraging inflation figures, Chris Giles observed that a number of economists had predicted that quantitative easing would lead to "hyperinflation", which now seems highly unlikely to materialise.  This provoked a conversation between me, Chris, Giles Wilkes, Pawel Morski, and ECONOMIST HULK, in which Andrew Lilico expressed his view that if we returned to healthy growth, inflation would inevitably follow.   Andrew argued: 

If economy's back to growing faster, inflation will go back to rising. Betcha!

Posted: 16 May, 2013 - 15:56

My summary of the economic evidence on immigration: labour markets, benefits, public services and the long-term impacts on growth and productivity (video, 8 minutes

Posted: 6 May, 2013 - 10:36

The Daily Mail is rarely knowingly understated when it comes to a scare story, especially about immigration. However, sometimes ignorance of basic statistical concepts does the job for them. So it is for today's piece, "How rise of white flight is creating a segregated UK", which states: 

Posted: 2 May, 2013 - 21:50

My letter to the FT responds to Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's opinion piece (2 May):

"In their article 'Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem', Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart argue:

Posted: 2 May, 2013 - 06:23

In a new paper published today in the latest issue of the National Institute Economic Review, economists David Bell and David Blanchflower of the University of Stirling and Dartmouth College introduce a new measure of labour market slack. The conventional measure of the difference between supply and demand in the labour market is the unemployment rate.

Nathan, M's picture

Dr Max Nathan

Posted: 26 April, 2013 - 10:32

Like many Western countries, the UK has become substantially more ethnically and culturally diverse. The 2011 Census makes this crystal clear. Since 2001, the foreign-born population in England and Wales has jumped from 4.6 to 7.5m. At the same time, the ‘white British’ ethnic group shrank from 87.5-80% of the population. What are the economic impacts of these deep demographic shifts, and what do they mean for cities?

Posted: 23 April, 2013 - 09:52

[Updated 17.00 with HMT response: see end]

Bryson, A's picture

Prof Alex Bryson

Posted: 17 April, 2013 - 13:43

 Positive Employee Attitudes: How Much Human Resource Management Do You Need?

Bryson, A's picture

Prof Alex Bryson

Posted: 15 April, 2013 - 21:55

Are You Happy While You Work?

Alex Bryson (NIESR and CEP) and George MacKerron (University of Sussex)

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 12 April, 2013 - 01:45


Financial crises are like wars; the winners write the history. In the UK the winners are the Treasury and the Bank of England armed with the ultimate weapon of the public purse. There will be no public enquiry into the cause of the crisis or the performance of our public institutions responsible for financial system stability. All this matters because without learning from past mistakes we are condemned to repeat them.

Posted: 9 April, 2013 - 23:00

Here is NIESR's chart showing the path of recession and recovery in various previous downturns, updated for our estimate of monthly GDP, published April 9, 2013.  

Posted: 5 April, 2013 - 07:56

NIESR's research for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, by NIESR researchers Tatiana Fic, Mumtaz Lalani, and Heather Rolfe, on the impact of immigration from Bulgaria and Romania was published today. The key findings are discussed in detail by Heather Rolfe in the New Statesman here.

Posted: 4 April, 2013 - 21:39

I recently devoted a blog post to an analysis of David Goodhart's claim that people in Whitehall and Westminster made immigration policy on the basis of a view that "the only decent policy is to throw open our doors to all" - an assertion so self-evidently absurd I am still astonished an intelligent person could actually write it down and expect to be taken seriously.

Posted: 3 April, 2013 - 19:21

[David Goodhart's response to my blog  is now posted below]

David Goodhart here

Posted: 27 March, 2013 - 21:22

David Goodhart's book on immigration and the UK, the British Dream, hasn't been released yet.  But on what I know (I've discussed these issues with David numerous times and he kindly asked me to read part of the draft) it will have a tremendous amount of sociologically interesting anecdote but a rather selective, at best, reading of the evidence.

Posted: 24 March, 2013 - 18:26

Yesterday I spotted a tweet from @ToryTreasury, who describes him/herself as "Official CCHQ voice for all things Treasury".

Ed Miliband's spending plans he repeated today would mean £33bn more borrowing this year - driving the deficit back up to double-digits.

I tweeted back

Posted: 22 March, 2013 - 20:50

From Nick Clegg's speech on immigration: 

Posted: 21 March, 2013 - 17:27

The first substantive line of George Osborne's Budget Speech was:

Posted: 14 March, 2013 - 08:25

This Committee published its Report today. For anyone interested who is interested in the future of public services and the welfare state, looking beyond the short-term debate about austerity, it is essential reading - and it is only 10 pages long, although there are extensive annexes setting out the evidence base.