The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.
Do migrants, especially those from within the European Union, get a better deal in Britain than they would elsewhere in the EU? My article in the Guardian, here.
Tonight, Ed Miliband will - again - admit that "Labour didn't get it right on immigration", in particular by failing to impose the "maximum transitional controls" on those coming here from the new EU Member States.
[This article originally appeared in Public Finance]
[This article originally appeared in City AM on Friday 1 March]
Tomorrow's immigration statistics (Thursday 28 February) will be pored over for evidence of whether the government is making progress towards its "target" of reducing net migration to the "tens of thousands".
The IFS Green Budget - the 2013 version of which was published last week - is as ever essential reading for anyone interested in UK macroeconomic and fiscal policy. Catching up with it a little after the event, the following passages jumped out at me:
Global Economic Forecast
The continued dismal performance of the UK economy is entirely consistent with the predictions of those of us who have argued consistently for the last two years that premature fiscal consolidation would be severely contractionary in the short term, and risked doing significant long-term economic and social damage.
Last night I got into a Twitter "debate" with Michael Fabricant, who is Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party. I replay it here to set out the facts (which are fairly simple) and perhaps to give Mr Fabricant one more change to correct his position gracefully.
[Updated, 2.45pm: Mr Fabricant has done exactly that, tweeting:
At the Treasury Committee in October, I came under sustained questioning as to my view that low long-term interest rates in the UK reflect economic weakness (domestic and global) and expectations that short-term interest rates set by the Bank of England will remain very low (again, reflecting economic weakness); and not, in any meaningful sense, the "credibility" of government fiscal policy or economic strategy more generally.
[My chapter in the Fabian Society pamphlet "The Great Rebalancing: How to fix the broken economy", edited by Andrew Harrop, which also features chapters by Maurice Glasman, Stephany Griffith-Jones, Chi Onwurah, Duncan Weldon, Mariana Mazzucato, Vicky Pryce, and Chris Leslie].
Brad Delong has posted the full (rough) transcript of the panel that he chaired at the San Diego meetings of the American Economic Association:
STIMULUS OR STYMIED?: THE MACROECONOMICS OF RECESSIONS
Here are my answers to the Financial Times' annual economists' survey (the survey is reported in full here):
Brad Delong calls for economists to "mark their beliefs to market" - that is, reassess their position when the facts suggest that they might have been wrong - and commendably shows us the way here.