The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Posted: 21 September, 2012 - 19:16

In an interview with the Spectator's Isabel Hardman, Chris Skidmore MP has responded to my New Statesman review of Britannia Unchained, his book with fellow MPs Kwasi Kwarteng, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Liz Truss . She quotes his response:

Posted: 20 September, 2012 - 14:26

[This article was originally published in Liberal Democrat Voice here in response to a specific request to comment on the texts reproduced below. I have made many of the arguments below in previous blogposts, so regular readers may not find much new, but for others it may be a useful summary]. 

Posted: 19 September, 2012 - 09:55

[Starring Toby Young and Daniel Hannan MEP (title roles), Daniel Knowles and Chris Cook (data geeks), and Dr. Anna Hedge (punchline writer)]

Posted: 17 September, 2012 - 07:53

[this post was published September 17, 2012 in Juncture, the journal of the Institute for Public Policy Research]

Posted: 12 September, 2012 - 13:50

It has been widely reported that the government is considering abandoning the second half of its fiscal mandate - that debt should be falling as a percentage of GDP in 2015-16.  My view is that the short term economic impacts of this are limited.  It's not really news; NIESR has been saying for well over a year that this target was unlikely to be met.

Posted: 8 September, 2012 - 00:00

Today we published our latest monthly GDP estimates, and alongside that our chart showing the path of recession and recovery in this and previous downturns.  Chris Giles has responded with a critique, pointing out that if you look at employment rather than output the picture is very different.

Posted: 5 September, 2012 - 11:55

[This note was prepared for the Policy Network economy conference, "The quest for growth".] 

Posted: 23 August, 2012 - 09:23

With the economy persistently weak, there is a growing consensus among economists that premature austerity has done considerable unnecessary damage, and that there is a strong case for slowing fiscal consolidation -  at least to restore some of the unnecessary and damaging cuts to public investment (which have been the source of most of the 

Posted: 3 August, 2012 - 08:38

NIESR has just published research estimating the economic impact of immediate versus delayed fiscal  consolidation in the UK.  The research was undertaken by Dawn Holland (NIESR), John Van Reenen, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and Director of the Centre for Economic Performance, and Nitika Bagaria, a Phd student also at LSE and CEP.  John and I have written an article for the FT(£). 

Posted: 2 August, 2012 - 23:00

NIESR's quarterly forecast for the UK economy is published today. Highlights: 

Posted: 2 August, 2012 - 22:59

NIESR's quarterly forecast for the world economy is published today. Highlights:

Posted: 30 July, 2012 - 09:54

This post relates to the ongoing blog debate on "the state of macroeconomics", which I contributed to here, and which has drawn in a whole host of economics bloggers who know far more about modern macroeconomic theory than I do.  However, here I want to address a related, more mundane question, but one which is perhaps more relevant to most non-economists' concerns.

Posted: 19 July, 2012 - 22:40

There is a huge amount of interesting material in the full IMF staff report on the UK, released today, in particular the lasting damage ("hysteresis" to economists) done by this prolonged period of very low growth.  But in this post I wanted to draw attention to one particular paragraph (it is para 43 on page 38).   I reproduce it here in full: 

Posted: 19 July, 2012 - 14:26

Guest post by Alex Bryson, Senior Research Fellow, NIESR

Posted: 15 July, 2012 - 21:18

The first achievement highlighted today by the Prime Minister in his Sunday Times article was deficit reduction:

"We’ve got the deficit down by a quarter already"

Posted: 6 July, 2012 - 21:22

I was on the Today programme this morning to discuss a report, written by Howard Reed of Landman Economics for a group of childrens' charities, called "In the Eye of the Storm", about the impact of tax and spending change on "vulnerable children and families".John Humphrys began by asking me what the report showed.

Posted: 5 July, 2012 - 09:24

[This article appeared first in Public Finance]

The G-20 has come full circle.  In April 2009 in London the talk was of a massive coordinated fiscal stimulus. While this was considerably exaggerated - much of the "trillion dollar package" has already been announced - there was a genuine collective determination to do what was necessary to ensure the financial crisis did not become a prolonged depression.

Posted: 2 July, 2012 - 22:54

[By Angus Armstrong, Director, Macroeconomic Research, NIESR]

Posted: 2 July, 2012 - 16:05


Posted: 29 June, 2012 - 16:42

[this post was updated at 9pm on 29/6/2012 to respond to Sam Freedman (DFE)]