- Home
- Publications
- The Economic Effects Of The Government’s Proposed Brexit Deal
The Economic Effects of the Government’s proposed Brexit Deal
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/calendar-alt.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/chain.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Updated%20Brexit%20Paper%20Social%20Image%20-%20November%202018_0.png)
Related Themes
Political EconomyTags
This report estimates the economic effects of the government’s proposed Brexit deal that was first published on 14 November 2018, and subsequently expanded.
The impact of any Brexit deal can be broken down into two key components: first, the economic impact of the changes in the trading relationships between the UK, EU and other countries brought about by the deal: second, the economic impact of how the deal affects uncertainty and confidence. The main focus of our analysis is on how the government’s proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy, leaving aside the effect it might have on uncertainty. Our assessment is that trade with the EU, especially in services, will be more costly after Brexit. This is likely to have an adverse effect on living standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales or the output of the financial services industry in London. This is equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000 per annum on average to people in the UK. If the UK were to stay in a customs union with the EU, or if the Irish backstop position was to be invoked, there would still be a hit to GDP per capita of 2 per cent.
Garry Young's note on the methodology used in the report is also included.
Related Blog Posts
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Long-View-Parliament-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/iStock-1002090484-640x640.jpg)
What Can Policy Makers Learn From Adam Smith?
Sayantan Ghosal
Graeme Roy
11 Mar 2024
5 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-Spring-Budget-Square-1-640x640.jpg)
Reflections on the 2024 Spring Budget: What Was and Wasn’t Addressed
Monica George Michail
Stephen Millard
11 Mar 2024
5 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/iStock-1444483498-2-640x640.jpg)
How the Chancellor’s Budget Could Help Households and the Struggling Regions
Arnab Bhattacharjee
Robyn Smith
Adrian Pabst
04 Mar 2024
6 min read
Related Projects
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Costs-of-Gambling-640x640.jpg)
Related News
![Drawing of the UK - Will the UK Break Apart](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Will-the-UK-break-apart-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Gambling-News-640x640.png)
Related Publications
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/9-Hero-Image-Macro-Analysis-of-Spending-Pledges-640x640.png)
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Main Parties’ Spending Pledges
24 Jun 2024
General Election Briefing
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-Images-General-Election-Briefings-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/5-Hero-Image-Productivity-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2-Hero-Image-Macroeconomic-Context-640x640.png)
Related events
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/BCF-Imagery-1.png)
Governor Talk with John Pullinger: The Electoral Commission
In this Governor Talk John Pullinger will present the work of the Electoral Commission and his role as its chair. The Electoral Commission is an independent body that oversees elections…
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Workshop-Imagery-7.png)
2024 UK General Election: Five Key Economic Priorities for the New Government
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Adam-Smith-Policymakers.png)
What Can Policy Makers Learn From Adam Smith?
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Public-Lecture-Imagery-.png)
NMITE and the Political Economy of Higher Education – Jesse Norman
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Public-Policy-Event-Imagery.png)
Economic Effects of Russia’s Invasion and Sanctions
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/dean-stone-image-2.png)
2022 Deane-Stone Lecture – The Uses and Abuses of Economic Statistics
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Political-Economy-Devolution-Twitter.jpg)
The Political Economy of Devolution in, and Secession from, the UK
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/pic%20for%2022%20July%20event%202.jpg)
What Next for the Levelling-Up Agenda? Addressing New and Old Challenges in the UK Regional Inequalities Landscape
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)