Downloads
GDP Tracker June 2020Authors
Dr Kemar Whyte
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingUK Set to Lose a Quarter of Output in Q2
Main points
- The UK economy looks set to decline by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, a significantly steeper decline than the first quarter, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures.
- According to the ONS estimate published this morning, the UK economy contracted by 10.4 per cent in the three months to April, broadly in line with what we forecast last month (figure 1).
- The contraction in growth reflects negative contributions across all the sectors.
- The May easing of the lockdown, suggests that April might have marked the trough in activity.
“As we have suggested, around a quarter of GDP is lost when the lockdown is fully in place. The latest ONS estimate represents a record monthly decline for UK GDP, with all sectors experiencing record falls. However, the economy now appears to have bottomed out, as recent survey evidence suggests an easing in the rate of contraction in the manufacturing and services sector. The re-opening of non-essential stores from 15 June, coupled with the government’s continued support should aid a gradual, albeit limited, recovery in domestic activity.”
Dr Kemar Whyte
Senior Economist - Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
Related Blog Posts
UK Inflation: A Tale of Two Forecasts
Huw Dixon
Jane Binner
Barry Jones
Jon Tepper
17 Jun 2024
3 min read
What Does Today’s Smaller Than Expected Fall in Inflation Mean?
Huw Dixon
22 May 2024
8 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Related Publications
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Main Parties’ Spending Pledges
24 Jun 2024
General Election Briefing