- Home
- Publications
- Recovery In Average Weekly Earnings To Stall
Recovery in Average Weekly Earnings to Stall
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/calendar-alt.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/chain.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Wage%20Tracker%20-%20November%202020%20-%20Social%20Image.jpg)
Recovery in average weekly earnings to stall despite hopes for a new vaccine
Main points
- Annual growth in average weekly earnings, including bonuses, turned positive from -1.2 per cent in the second quarter to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter as employees returned to work from furlough
- Unemployment is rising fast, reaching 4.8 per cent in the third quarter, with redundancies at record level
- Lockdowns in the fourth quarter could trigger a surge in the number of employees in furlough, making use of the extension of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)
- We forecast average weekly earnings including bonuses (AWE) to increase by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago
“The positive development related to a new vaccine raises hopes for a turnaround in the labour market, but not until next year. Until then, pay growth is likely to be subdued in the fourth quarter because of an expected increase in furloughed employees during the Autumn lockdown and ongoing high level of redundancies.”.
Cyrille Lenoël
Senior Economist, NIESR
Please find the full commentary in attachment
Related Blog Posts
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Living-Standards-MI-640x640.jpg)
How Are UK Living Standards Faring Ahead of the General Election?
Adrian Pabst
Robyn Smith
29 May 2024
4 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/iStock-1049795356-square-640x640.jpg)
Breaking Down the Different Types of Pension in the UK
Robyn Smith
Adrian Pabst
25 Mar 2024
6 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/National-Minimum-Wage-Blog-640x640.jpg)
What Are the Implications of the Rising National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage Rates?
Ekaterina Aleynikova
Adrian Pabst
19 Mar 2024
5 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Post-Scarcity-Society-640x640.png)
Related Projects
Related News
![Two females, one older than the other, in a workplace setting in front of a computer](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Age-Discrimination-in-the-Workplace-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NICs-Tax-Pre-Budget-piece_Social-Image-640x437.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Wage%20Tracker%20-%20January%202021%20-%20Social%20Image_0-640x360.jpg)
Press Release: Compositional effects push up average weekly earnings at the end of 2020
26 Jan 2021
2 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Wage%20Tracker%20-%20December%202020%20-%20Social%20Image_0-640x360.jpg)
Press Release: 2020 shaping up to be the worst year for total pay growth since 2009
15 Dec 2020
2 min read
Related Publications
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/WAGE-Tracker-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
Strong Wage Growth Persists Amidst Rise in National Minimum Wage
11 Jun 2024
Wage Trackers
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WAGE-Tracker-May-2024-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Labour-Market-Income-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fig.-1-April-Wage-Tracker-640x640.jpg)
Related events
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GROW%20Event%20-%20Social%20Image.jpg)
Improving the Recruitment of Older Workers
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)