- Home
- Publications
- Nowcasting ‘true’ Monthly U.S. GDP During The Pandemic
Nowcasting ‘true’ monthly U.S. GDP during the pandemic
Sign in to Access![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/calendar-alt.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/chain.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/3.png)
Downloads
This content is restricted to corporate members, NiGEM subscribers and NIESR partners.
Authors
External Authors
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Koop, G
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
McIntyre, S
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Poon, A
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingJEL Code
E01; E32
Journal
National Institute Economic Review
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
External Resources
Issue
256
Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.
Related Blog Posts
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huws-Blog-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huw-et-al.s-Blog-Pre-Inflation-Figures-Release-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
UK Inflation: A Tale of Two Forecasts
Huw Dixon
Jane Binner
Barry Jones
Jon Tepper
17 Jun 2024
3 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Huw-Blog-Fig-1-640x640.png)
What Does Today’s Smaller Than Expected Fall in Inflation Mean?
Huw Dixon
22 May 2024
8 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1019729218-square-640x640.jpg)
Related Projects
Related News
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-1162624151-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-874880910-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1443377667-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-639762750-1-640x640.jpg)
Related Publications
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-FIg1-Term-Premium-1-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/9-Hero-Image-Macro-Analysis-of-Spending-Pledges-640x640.png)
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Main Parties’ Spending Pledges
24 Jun 2024
General Election Briefing
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CPI-Tracker-June-2024-fig.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-Images-General-Election-Briefings-640x640.png)
Related events
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Economic-Forum-Imagery.png)
Summer 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Glasgow-Event-Imagery-2.png)
Spring 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Outlook-Event-Imagery-1.png)
Winter 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Copy-of-Event-Image-Templates-2.png)
Autumn 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Event-NiGEM-Template.png)
Summer 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/iStock-1323375651-scaled.jpg)
Spring 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UK-Winter-Economic-Outlook.jpg)
Winter 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Autumn-Economic-Forum.jpg)
Autumn 2021 Economic Forum
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)