Prospects for the UK economy: Forecast Summary

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
  • The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand.
  • We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the approval of the government’s proposed Brexit deal. We estimate that, in the long run, the economy would be 3½ per cent smaller with the deal compared to continued EU membership.
  • On the assumption that chronic uncertainty persists but the terms of EU trade remain unchanged, we forecast economic growth of under 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020, though the forecast is subject to significant uncertainty.
  • Favourable financing conditions, including an expected cut in Bank Rate, and looser fiscal policy will support economic growth while uncertainty continues to hold back investment and productivity growth. Household consumption growth is underpinned by rising real wages.

The economy is estimated to be 2½ per cent smaller now than it would otherwise have been as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote. 

Read the press release here and the full forecast here

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