- Home
- Publications
- UK Economy Facing An Unusual Level Of Uncertainty Because Of Brexit
UK economy facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit
“Prospects for the UK Economy” taken from the National Institute Economic Review
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/calendar-alt.png)
01 August, 2018
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/chain.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/UK-Regional-Model-900x900.jpg)
Downloads
uk-economy-aug-2018External Authors
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Piggott, Rebecca
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Kara, Amit
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Lennard, Jason
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Hantzsche, Arno
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/user.3.png)
Lopresto, Marta
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingTags
Journal
National Institute Economic Review, No. 1, Vol. 245
Publisher
Sage, London
External Resources
Key points
- The UK economy is facing an unusual level of uncertainty because of Brexit. This uncertainty primarily stems from the yet to be defined relationship between the UK and the EU but also from the economy’s response to the new framework once it emerges. The UK government’s White Paper, which set out its preferences for that new relationship, has failed to unite the government or Parliament, leaving open an entire spectrum of possible outcomes.
- Our central forecast under a ‘soft Brexit’ scenario is that the economy will grow at a pace that is consistent with its potential. This translates to annual GDP growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year, which is broadly unchanged from our previous forecast. The risks to our GDP growth forecast are wider than before and tilted to the downside.
- As before, we condition our forecast on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation with the next 25 basis point rate increase this month. On the fiscal side, we recommend that the government maintains its current level of spending (as a share of GDP) and raises the quality of public services.
Related Blog Posts
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huws-Blog-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huw-et-al.s-Blog-Pre-Inflation-Figures-Release-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
Blog
UK Inflation: A Tale of Two Forecasts
Huw Dixon
Jane Binner
Barry Jones
Jon Tepper
17 Jun 2024
3 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Huw-Blog-Fig-1-640x640.png)
Blog
What Does Today’s Smaller Than Expected Fall in Inflation Mean?
Huw Dixon
22 May 2024
8 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1019729218-square-640x640.jpg)
Related Projects
Related News
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-1162624151-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-874880910-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1443377667-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-639762750-1-640x640.jpg)
Related Publications
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-FIg1-Term-Premium-1-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/9-Hero-Image-Macro-Analysis-of-Spending-Pledges-640x640.png)
publication
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Main Parties’ Spending Pledges
24 Jun 2024
General Election Briefing
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CPI-Tracker-June-2024-fig.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-Images-General-Election-Briefings-640x640.png)
Related events
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Economic-Forum-Imagery.png)
Summer 2023 Economic Forum
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that...
11:00 to 12:00
11 August, 2023
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Glasgow-Event-Imagery-2.png)
Spring 2023 Economic Forum
NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...
11:00 to 12:00
12 May, 2023
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Outlook-Event-Imagery-1.png)
Winter 2023 Economic Forum
With recent UK GDP figures prompting a cautious optimism amongst some analysts, the question has arisen around whether the UK can avoid a recession? Was the 0.1% growth in November...
11:00 to 12:00
10 February, 2023
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Copy-of-Event-Image-Templates-2.png)
Autumn 2022 Economic Forum
Join us, the day after the Chancellor’s autumn statement, to hear our analysis of the measures announced and their likely impact at both a UK, and individual household, level. Utilising...
11:30 to 12:30
18 November, 2022
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Event-NiGEM-Template.png)
Summer 2022 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Summer 2022 Economic Forecast, where we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an opportunity...
11:00 to 12:00
5 August, 2022
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/iStock-1323375651-scaled.jpg)
Spring 2022 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Spring 2022 Economic Forecast, at which we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an...
11:00 to 12:00
13 May, 2022
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UK-Winter-Economic-Outlook.jpg)
Winter 2022 Economic Forum
With rising inflation asking questions of central banks, consumer incomes hit by rising energy prices and Omicron continuing to disrupt the supply of both goods and labour, what does the...
11:00 to 12:00
11 February, 2022
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Autumn-Economic-Forum.jpg)
Autumn 2021 Economic Forum
We are delighted to invite you to our Autumn 2021 Economic Forum, at which we will present and discuss NIESR’s latest forecasts on the UK and global economies, with an opportunity for you to ask questions.
11:00 to 12:00
12 November, 2021
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)