- Home
- Publications
- Unexpected March Downturn Brings Recession Closer
Unexpected March Downturn Brings Recession Closer
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/calendar-alt.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/chain.png)
Downloads
NIESR_Monthly_GDP_May_2022Authors
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingMain points
- GDP grew by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter: less than the 1.0 per cent we forecast a month ago, predominantly due to weaker services growth. Supply-chain problems in the motor industry contributed significantly but there was weak growth in much of the retail sector.
- With consumer confidence indicators continuing to weaken we expect growth to be largely flat in April and close to flatlining in the second quarter overall.
- The first estimate of GDP expenditure components for the first quarter was for a decline in business investment of 0.5 per cent. With uncertainty from the war in Ukraine likely to weigh on investment further, we may see yet further delays to recovery from the Covid shock, reducing the capital stock and supply capacity yet further.
“March’s deterioration in consumer confidence translated into a sharp fall in retail and wholesale, which was exacerbated by continuing supply-chain problems in the motor industry. Offsetting this, the continuing normalisation of GP and hospital activities cancelled out falling Covid-related activity to mean that the health sector returned to month-on-month growth. Falling business investment in the first estimate for the first quarter is a concern: with the government’s tax ‘super-deduction’ expiring in under a year we still see little sign of a recovery from the Covid shock.”
Rory Macqueen
Principal Economist, NIESR
Related Blog Posts
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huws-Blog-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Huw-et-al.s-Blog-Pre-Inflation-Figures-Release-June-2024-640x640.jpg)
UK Inflation: A Tale of Two Forecasts
Huw Dixon
Jane Binner
Barry Jones
Jon Tepper
17 Jun 2024
3 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Huw-Blog-Fig-1-640x640.png)
What Does Today’s Smaller Than Expected Fall in Inflation Mean?
Huw Dixon
22 May 2024
8 min read
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1019729218-square-640x640.jpg)
Related Projects
Related News
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-1162624151-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iStock-874880910-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-1443377667-1-640x640.jpg)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/iStock-639762750-1-640x640.jpg)
Related Publications
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-FIg1-Term-Premium-1-640x640.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/9-Hero-Image-Macro-Analysis-of-Spending-Pledges-640x640.png)
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Main Parties’ Spending Pledges
24 Jun 2024
General Election Briefing
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CPI-Tracker-June-2024-fig.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hero-Images-General-Election-Briefings-640x640.png)
Related events
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Economic-Forum-Imagery.png)
Summer 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Glasgow-Event-Imagery-2.png)
Spring 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Outlook-Event-Imagery-1.png)
Winter 2023 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Copy-of-Event-Image-Templates-2.png)
Autumn 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Event-NiGEM-Template.png)
Summer 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/iStock-1323375651-scaled.jpg)
Spring 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UK-Winter-Economic-Outlook.jpg)
Winter 2022 Economic Forum
![Event Image](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Autumn-Economic-Forum.jpg)
Autumn 2021 Economic Forum
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)
![](https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/themes/niesr/assets/img/arrow-right.png)