Blog

Posts from NIESR staff and visitors on research findings and policy.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 11 April, 2014 - 11:03 with: Comments
Does the UK recovery prove wrong those of us who argued that the Government's fiscal consolidation plan, announced in June 2010, was poorly designed and ignored some basic economic principles?  The Chancellor, not surprisingly, says yes:

Dr Monique Ebell

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 10 April, 2014 - 16:43 with: Comments
Our estimates of the possible borrowing costs for an independent Scottish government contained in full detail in our Discussion Paper 416, Scotland’s Currency Options, have been closely examined by all sides of the debate. In recent weeks Professor Andrew Hughes-Hallett, a member of the Scottish Government’s Fiscal Commission Working Group and Council of Economic Advisors, in evidence to the Scottish Parliament, claimed that:

Dr Max Nathan

Posted: 24 March, 2014 - 15:18 with: Comments
The Centre for Entrepreneurs think tank recently made waves with this report on migrant entrepreneurship. The headlines are striking: 450,000 migrants set up 1 in 7 UK companies, at almost twice the rate of the UK population (17% vs 10%). Here are some reactions. Overall, this is a welcome piece of work. However, I have some reservations about the numbers. And the report – understandably – doesn’t address some of the big issues where we still need answers.

Dr Monique Ebell

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 18 March, 2014 - 14:30 with: Comments
The latest Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) report shows that the fiscal deficit relative to output increased to 8.3% from 5.8% in 2012-13. This includes the favourable geographic share of tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas. The onshore deficit fell slightly but remains a staggering 14% of GDP. There is no denying that these are very large deficits. While most of the commentary has been comparing the data to the whole of the UK, the real news in these figures is the volatility of tax revenues.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 4 March, 2014 - 23:10 with: Comments
Two years ago, the Government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee published an econometric analysis of the impact of migration on the employment of native British workers. It concluded – contrary to a number of other analyses, by me and other labour economists – that there was, at least for some immigrants and in some circumstances, a negative impact:

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 4 March, 2014 - 12:52 with: Comments
Statements from Scotland’s First Minister last week suggest that a Currency Plan B is beginning to emerge. It appears that the Scottish Government is committed to a sterling currency union regardless of the UK Government's view. The fall-back option then appears to be dollarization using sterling as the medium of exchange. This blog considers some the possible consequences of dollarization.