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Macro-Economic Modelling And Forecasting

Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Our greatest economic challenge is to understand how the forces of globalisation will affect our prosperity. Modelling important economic and financial interactions in the UK and global economies is the best way to make sense of the processes shaping our future.

NIESR is the leading macroeconomics research institute in the UK and home of one of the most successful large-scale structural macroeconomic models in the world. We produce quarterly forecasts on both the UK and global economy, as well as a series of monthly trackers. Subscribers to the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) include central banks, finance ministries and an increasing number of private organisations.

Projects

project

NGFS Scenarios Phase III

project

South African Model Extension

project

Covid-19: Industry Level Origins of Fluctuations in Growth Rates and Economic Welfare

project

The economic adjustment programmes of Greece: 2010-2018

project

Integration of NiGEM into Phase II of the NGFS scenarios

project

Smart Public Intangibles (SPINTAN)

project

Predicting economic growth from business news

Publications

publication

High Airfares Raise Inflation to 3.8% in July

20 Aug 2025

CPI Trackers

publication

Brexit and Non-Tariff Barriers: Effects on UK Business Investment and Productivity

14 Aug 2025

Discussion Papers

publication

Services and Construction Surprise in the Second Quarter

14 Aug 2025

GDP Trackers

publication

Hiring Activity Continues to Fall Sharply

12 Aug 2025

Wage Trackers

publication

Why Bond Markets Are Now In Charge

06 Aug 2025

Global Economic Outlook Box Analysis

publication

New Evidence on Nowcasting Monthly UK GDP

06 Aug 2025

UK Economic Outlook Box Analysis

publication

UK Economic Outlook: The Chancellor’s Trilemma

06 Aug 2025

UK Economic Outlook

publication

Global Economic Outlook Summer 2025

06 Aug 2025

Global Economic Outlook

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 90 91 Next

Blog Posts

Blog

Inflation to Remain Above 3 per cent in 2025 and Beyond

Huw Dixon

20 Aug 2025

4 min read

Blog

Scenarios and substance: how the BoE can improve its analysis

Benjamin Caswell

25 Jun 2025

3 min read

Blog

Inflation will Remain Above 3 per cent Throughout 2025 and into 2026

Huw Dixon

18 Jun 2025

5 min read

Blog

Inflation Unexpectedly Rises to 3.5 per cent and Will Remain Above 3 per cent Throughout 2025

Huw Dixon

21 May 2025

4 min read

Blog

Inflation Set to Rise Throughout 2025

Huw Dixon

Jon Tepper

Jane Binner

Barry Jones

19 May 2025

2 min read

Blog

The Difficulties Facing the Bank of England

Fergus Jimenez-England

Benjamin Caswell

19 May 2025

7 min read

Blog

Inflation Eases But Will Stay Above Target Through 2025

Huw Dixon

26 Mar 2025

6 min read

Blog

Forecasting Inflation for 2025: Comparing Simple and Intermediate MRN Models

Huw Dixon

Jane Binner

Jon Tepper

Barry Jones

25 Mar 2025

3 min read

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 12 13 Next

News

news

High US Tariffs Could Knock UK GDP Growth Close to Zero Next Year

02 Apr 2025

2 min read

news

How do Bond Markets React to Election Results?

31 Jul 2024

8 min read

news

What are the Future Prospects for UK Inflation?

11 Jun 2024

11 min read

news

The UK’s Public Finances: Is It Time To Reform The Fiscal Rules?

07 Jun 2024

8 min read

news

Can US Policy Choices Explain Economic Divergence?

31 May 2024

4 min read

news

Which Taxes are Best and Worst for Growth?

30 May 2024

12 min read

news

Taking Stock of Bernanke: The Original Sin of Forecasting

23 Apr 2024

6 min read

news

Fixing forecasting at the Bank of England

19 Apr 2024

4 min read

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Events

NiGEM Workshop: Introduction of Fiscal Packages into NiGEM (International Examples)

This workshop, aimed at those users who are familiar with NiGEM and the way the model operates, will provide a step-by-step guide to introducing fiscal packages. The contents will be…

This content is only available to members.

11:00 to 12:00

20 June, 2025

NiGEM Workshop: Modelling Fiscal Rules in NiGEM

This workshop is an advanced course on fiscal policy rules in NiGEM, covering how to set them in forecast and simulation, how government debt feeds through into the model, and…

This content is only available to members.

14:00 to 15:00

19 June, 2025

NiGEM Workshop: Forecasting in NiGEM

Aimed at users who are already familiar with NiGEM and the way the model operates, this workshop provides instruction in how to create a new forecast base. It includes an…

This content is only available to members.

11:00 to 12:00

19 June, 2025

NiGEM Workshop: Unwinding Conflict Scenarios in NiGEM

This workshop is designed for users who are familiar with NiGEM and provides a step-by-step guide in building complex scenarios using different channels in NiGEM.

This content is only available to members.

14:00 to 15:00

20 March, 2025

NiGEM Workshop: General Imbalances and Structural Trends: An Exercise Using NiGEM

This workshop is designed for users who are familiar with NiGEM. It is focused on exploring trade imbalances, and how different shocks in NiGEM can adjust them.

This content is only available to members.

11:00 to 12:00

20 March, 2025

Summer 2023 Economic Forum

NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that...

11:00 to 12:00

11 August, 2023

Spring 2023 Economic Forum

NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we present our forecast for the next economic quarter. As King Charles III is officially crowned, and the...

11:00 to 12:00

12 May, 2023

Winter 2023 Economic Forum

With recent UK GDP figures prompting a cautious optimism amongst some analysts, the question has arisen around whether the UK can avoid a recession? Was the 0.1% growth in November...

11:00 to 12:00

10 February, 2023

Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Projects

Publications

Blog Posts

News

Events

People